The decline in US-China visa issuances and ongoing diplomatic tensions between the two nations have significantly impacted air travel demand and tourism. Despite the increase in available seats on direct flights from China’s Pearl River Delta to the US, the reduction in US visa approvals has created a disconnect, with fewer Chinese nationals eligible to travel. This drop in visa issuances, caused by stricter policies, ongoing trade disputes, and reduced staff at US consulates, has resulted in limited growth for China-US air routes. As a result, while the airline industry may increase flight capacities, demand remains fragile due to the visa challenges, hindering the full recovery of air travel and tourism between the two countries.

Since the re-election of Donald Trump and the resurgence of the US-China trade war, diplomatic ties between the two nations have become increasingly strained, with significant repercussions for air travel between the countries. In this article, we will analyze the current state of air routes between China and the U.S., specifically focusing on direct flights from the Pearl River Delta—comprising Hong Kong, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen—to the United States.

Over the past few years, the number of seats available on direct flights from the Pearl River Delta to the US has seen a significant increase. In the first quarter of 2023, the daily seat availability averaged 1,500, but by the fourth quarter of 2024, this had risen to 4,200 seats. This growth in seat capacity has had a direct impact on ticket prices:

• Economy-class fares have decreased from an average of RMB 12,000 (approximately USD 1,680) in Q1 2023 to RMB 8,000 (roughly USD 1,120) in Q1 2025, reflecting a quarterly reduction of about RMB 440 (around USD 62).
• Premium-class (business/first) tickets have also experienced a drop, with prices falling by roughly RMB 760 (USD 106) per quarter, from RMB 45,000 (USD 6,300) in Q1 2023 to RMB 43,000 (USD 6,020) by Q1 2025.

However, despite the increasing number of available seats, the demand for air travel on China-US routes remains fragile. One major factor contributing to this fragility is the limited number of US visas issued to Chinese citizens.

Looking at the trend in US visa issuances over the past decade:

• In 2015, approximately 7,000 U.S. visas were issued daily to Chinese citizens.
• By 2019, this number had declined to 3,200 visas per day.
• Now, in 2025, with the expiration of the first batch of 10-year US visas granted in 2015, and with no notable increase in new visa issuances, the daily number of visas issued has further dwindled to only 2,500.

This results in around 4,500 individuals losing their eligibility to travel to the US each day, while the combined daily seat capacity for flights from Beijing and Shanghai to the US is just 2,900. This significant gap illustrates the ongoing struggle in maintaining demand for US-China flights.

The visa situation has deteriorated further under the Trump administration, with US consulates facing staffing cuts and stricter rules for Chinese applicants. These developments suggest that visa policies will likely continue to tighten in the coming years.

If the annual issuance of US visas remains capped at 500,000, the situation will become even more dire. By 2029, it is projected that fewer than 4 million Chinese nationals will hold valid US visas, a stark decline from the figure seen a decade ago.

This decline in visa issuances poses a significant challenge not only to the aviation and tourism sectors between China and the US, but also to China’s entire outbound travel market. As the constraints on travel continue to tighten, the broader impacts on both nations’ economies and tourism industries will become more pronounced, requiring a careful reevaluation of diplomatic and travel policies.

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