According to a report, President Trump’s trade wars and aggressive rhetoric are expected to hurt the U.S. tourism sector, potentially discouraging foreign travelers from visiting the country. The report warns that escalating trade tensions with countries such as Canada, China, Mexico, and the European Union could significantly impact international tourism to the U.S. in 2025.

Trade Wars Impacting U.S. Tourism

The White House’s trade disputes are set to weigh heavily on foreign tourism, with the Tourism Economics analysis predicting that international travel to the U.S. will drop by just over 5% in 2025. Of particular concern is Canada, which is forecasted to experience the sharpest decline in visitors to the U.S., with a projected 15% drop in Canadian travelers.

In February 2025, the number of air travelers from Canada to the U.S. declined slightly by 2%, while cross-border car travel dropped 24%. Canadians, who accounted for over 20 million visits to the U.S. in 2024, are now expected to seek alternative destinations like the Caribbean or Latin America. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently encouraged residents to “choose Canada” for vacations, promoting domestic travel to the country’s various tourist spots.

Economic Implications and Lower Travel Spending

In addition to the trade tensions, domestic tourism is also expected to take a hit. Tourism Economics forecasts a 1.4% decline in U.S. travel spending in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including slower economic growth, rising inflation, and diminished consumer confidence. The Federal Reserve has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7% amidst concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, which could lead to reduced spending by U.S. households on domestic travel.

Impact of Tariffs and International Perception

The growing tension between the U.S. and other countries over tariffs—including proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports—could further dampen the interest of foreign travelers. The U.S. Travel Association has expressed concerns that these tariffs would increase travel costs for international visitors, while simultaneously reducing spending from American tourists.

Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks attributed part of the issue to the negative perception of the U.S. due to President Trump’s stance on international conflicts, particularly Russia’s war on Ukraine. The perception that the U.S. may be sympathetic toward Russia—while Western Europe supports Ukraine—could also influence European sentiment, reducing their willingness to travel to the U.S.

Hotel Industry and Travel Uncertainty

The hotel sector could also experience challenges, particularly in the lower-tier hotel chains, as U.S. consumers are expected to scale back their travel plans. Weaker job and income growth will likely result in reduced travel demand, with lower-income households facing increased pressure from rising prices caused by tariffs. The reduction in international visitors combined with less spending by U.S. residents could see U.S. hotels facing declining demand for rooms in 2025.

In conclusion, the ripple effect from President Trump’s trade wars is projected to have a negative impact on both international and domestic tourism to the U.S. in 2025, with forecasts indicating significant declines in visitor numbers, particularly from Canada and Europe. As tensions continue, U.S. tourism may face substantial challenges, while global travelers seek alternatives.

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