Severe Weather New Updates: St. Louis and Metro East Under Threat, Large Hail, Tornadoes, and Damaging Winds Expected For Friday Afternoon

Residents of St. Louis, Missouri, and the Metro East region of Illinois should prepare for a significant severe weather event on Friday afternoon as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk alert for the area.

The National Weather Service (NWS) St. Louis office forecasts the development of severe thunderstorms beginning around 1 p.m. CDT, affecting east-central and southeastern Missouri, including the greater St. Louis metropolitan area and extending into the Metro East counties.

Primary hazards expected include very large hail over 2 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph, and the possibility of strong tornadoes rated EF2 or greater.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch covering portions of southern Illinois and central to eastern Missouri through 7 p.m. CDT. Meanwhile, the NWS is issuing localized severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings as storms develop and move through the region.

Forecast Details and Primary Threats

According to the National Weather Service (NWS) St. Louis, severe thunderstorms are expected to begin forming near 1 p.m. CDT across east-central and south-central to southeast Missouri, stretching from just west of the St. Louis metropolitan area eastward along and beyond Interstate 44.

The main threats associated with these storms include:

Very large hail, potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter, with scattered hail up to 4 inches possible.
Damaging wind gusts exceeding 80 mph, capable of causing structural damage, downed trees, and power outages.
Several tornadoes, including the possibility of strong EF2 or greater tornadoes, posing serious risks to life and property.

Watches and Warnings: How to Stay Informed

The SPC is responsible for issuing tornado and severe thunderstorm watches, alerting residents of areas where conditions are favorable for severe weather development. Local warnings—severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings—are issued by the NWS St. Louis office as storms form and intensify.

As of the afternoon on May 16, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was active for parts of southeastern Calhoun County, Illinois, northeastern Saint Charles County, and Saint Louis County and City. This warning remains in effect until 2:45 p.m. CDT and highlights immediate threats of two-inch hail and wind gusts around 60 mph.

Simultaneously, a Tornado Watch covers portions of southern Illinois as well as central and eastern Missouri from 11:55 a.m. through 7:00 p.m. CDT. This watch area extends approximately 80 statute miles east and west along a line from 70 miles south of Harrison, Arkansas, to 35 miles north-northwest of St. Louis, Missouri.

Current Conditions and Storm Movement

At 2:02 p.m. CDT, a severe thunderstorm was reported over Defiance, Missouri, approximately 7 miles southwest of Dardenne Prairie, moving eastward at 55 mph. Areas impacted include:

St. Louis, O’Fallon, St. Charles, St. Peters, Florissant, Chesterfield, Wildwood, University City, Ballwin, Alton, Kirkwood, Maryland Heights, East St. Louis, Hazelwood, Webster Groves, Ferguson, Manchester, Godfrey, Creve Coeur, and Overland.

The storm environment continues to become more conducive to severe weather due to:

Strong low-level moisture advection and daytime heating destabilizing the atmosphere.
The approach of a cold front that acts as a trigger for thunderstorm development.
Strong vertical wind shear, favoring the formation of supercells—the primary storm type responsible for large hail and tornadoes.

Understanding the Risks: Supercell Storms and Severe Weather Hazards

Supercell thunderstorms are distinguished by their rotating updrafts and are capable of producing all forms of severe weather hazards, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

According to the National Weather Service, such storms pose significant threats:

Hail up to 4 inches in diameter can cause serious injury and extensive damage to vehicles, roofs, and crops.
Wind gusts of 70–80 mph are capable of uprooting trees, damaging buildings, and creating hazardous driving conditions.
Tornadoes rated EF2 or stronger on the Enhanced Fujita Scale can cause major structural damage and threaten lives.

The NWS St. Louis office encourages residents to maintain situational awareness, have a weather radio or smartphone alerts enabled, and know their safest shelter options.

Safety Recommendations from Official Agencies

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provide the following guidance for residents in tornado and severe storm risk areas:

Stay informed: Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local news, and weather apps for real-time updates.
Have a plan: Identify a safe room or storm shelter in your home or workplace—ideally a basement or interior room with no windows.
Prepare an emergency kit: Include essentials such as water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, and batteries.
Avoid travel: During warnings, seek shelter immediately rather than driving, as roads may be dangerous.
Secure outdoor items: Strong winds can turn unsecured objects into projectiles.

For more detailed preparedness information, visit official websites:

National Weather Service
NOAA Storm Prediction Center
FEMA Severe Weather Safety

Historical Context: Severe Weather in the St. Louis Region

The St. Louis metropolitan area has a history of impactful severe weather outbreaks, including notable tornadoes and damaging hail events. The Missouri State Emergency Management Agency (SEMA) underscores the importance of preparedness given the region’s vulnerability during spring and early summer.

This year’s increasing atmospheric instability is consistent with seasonal patterns, where warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cooler air masses from the north, setting the stage for intense thunderstorms.

Coordination and Response Efforts

Local emergency services, including the St. Louis County Office of Emergency Management and the Illinois Emergency Management Agency (IEMA), are coordinating with the National Weather Service and other partners to provide timely alerts and facilitate rapid response in the event of storm impacts.

Residents are urged to heed all warnings and instructions from authorities, report hazardous conditions, and check on neighbors, especially the elderly or those with mobility challenges.

Preparing Businesses and Schools

The severe weather outlook also affects schools and businesses in the region. Institutions are advised to review their severe weather protocols, communicate plans with staff and students, and ensure that safe shelter areas are accessible.

The St. Louis Regional Chamber recommends businesses monitor weather forecasts closely and be prepared for possible disruptions, including power outages and transportation delays.

Summary: Key Points to Remember

Moderate Risk of severe weather impacts, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, for St. Louis and Metro East on Friday afternoon.
Watches issued by NOAA SPC; warnings by NWS St. Louis.
Storm development begins around 1 p.m., moving eastward at 55 mph.
Residents should stay alert, follow safety plans, and monitor official weather updates.
Severe thunderstorm warning in effect for parts of Illinois and Missouri until 2:45 p.m. CDT.
Tornado watch active until 7 p.m. CDT across southern Illinois and central/eastern Missouri.

Conclusion

As severe weather approaches the St. Louis metropolitan area and Metro East region, residents and visitors are urged to prepare and respond quickly to warnings. The combination of very large hail, damaging winds, and potential tornadoes presents a serious hazard, and staying informed through trusted government and meteorological sources is critical.

By following official guidance from the National Weather Service, NOAA, and local emergency management agencies, communities can reduce risk and protect lives and property during this potentially dangerous weather event.

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