How Will U.S. Tourism Evolve as Visitor Numbers Reach New Heights? Exploring the Surge in Global Interest and What’s Ahead

The United States is preparing for a significant rise in international tourism, with projections indicating that 77.1 million visitors will travel to the country in 2025. This represents a 6.5% increase from 2024, signaling strong global demand for travel to the U.S. This upward trend is expected to continue in the coming years, with international arrivals projected to exceed 85 million by 2026. By 2029, the U.S. anticipates nearly 97 million visitors, signaling robust long-term growth and the continued recovery of the global travel industry.

Strong Global Recovery in Key Markets

The National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) forecasts indicate that several countries are already showing strong recovery in travel to the U.S. In 2024, international arrivals to the U.S. rebounded to 91% of 2019 levels. The recovery process, however, varies across countries. Key markets, such as India and Italy, have already surpassed their pre-pandemic levels and are expected to maintain strong growth momentum in 2025.

India has seen an exceptional increase, with a 552% surge in visitors from 2020 to 2024, making it the fourth-largest source of inbound travel to the U.S.
China is also on track for a strong recovery, with an expected 38.9% increase in 2025 following a substantial rebound in 2024.

Meanwhile, other countries like Germany, France, Mexico, Brazil, and Canada are expected to fully recover by 2026. Mexico, in particular, is already approaching pre-pandemic levels, reaching 93% of 2019 arrivals in 2024. However, countries like the United Kingdom, Australia, China, South Korea, and Japan are expected to take longer to reach full recovery, with projections pushing their recovery to 2027 or later.

Path to 90 Million Visitors by 2027

One of the major goals set by the 2022 National Travel and Tourism Strategy is to attract 90 million international visitors by 2027. This would generate an estimated $279 billion in spending across the country. The most recent forecast confirms that this goal is well within reach, with projections indicating that the U.S. will see 90.1 million visitors by 2027.

Several factors are contributing to this growth:

Increased airline connectivity, including more direct flights from major markets like India, Brazil, and China.
Eased visa processing times in key countries, which have reduced barriers for travelers looking to visit the U.S.
Strengthening economies in key tourism markets, resulting in a rise in outbound travel demand.

The Economic Impact of Rising Tourism

The growing number of international visitors is expected to provide a significant boost to the U.S. economy. The travel and tourism sector remains a key contributor to the nation’s GDP, with spending from international tourists supporting millions of jobs in areas such as hospitality, retail, and transportation.

As the industry continues to recover, popular U.S. destinations, including New York, Los Angeles, and Orlando, as well as emerging hotspots like Austin and Nashville, are preparing for an influx of international travelers. This is expected to lead to a record-breaking decade for U.S. tourism, benefiting both well-established and newly popular destinations.

Challenges and Shifts in Canadian Travel Trends

While international visitation to the U.S. is on the rise, Canadian travel trends are experiencing a different story. Recent policy shifts, including U.S. tariffs under the administration of President Donald Trump, are reshaping travel habits, particularly for Canadians. A sharp 40% drop in bookings to U.S. destinations was recorded in February 2025 compared to the same month in 2024.

Moreover, the potential reintroduction of Trump’s travel ban is another factor influencing travel trends. While the ban may not significantly affect the primary source markets of U.S. tourism, it could impact Muslim travelers from countries affected by the policy. This shift could influence travel sentiment, especially from countries with substantial Muslim populations that frequently visit the U.S. for business, education, and tourism.

Long-Term Effects on the Travel Industry

The long-term effects of these shifts in tourism projections are far-reaching. As the U.S. sees a major influx of international visitors, travel agencies, airlines, and destinations will need to adjust to accommodate the increased demand. The growing popularity of U.S. travel will also create new opportunities for businesses in the tourism sector, but also heightened competition for travelers’ attention.

The expected rise in global travel will result in greater competition among countries for international tourists. To stay competitive, U.S. cities will need to highlight their unique offerings, from cultural and historical sites to natural attractions and vibrant city life. Countries recovering from the pandemic and emerging markets like India and China will need to adapt quickly to capitalize on this trend.

With international visitor numbers projected to hit 77.1 million in 2025, the U.S. tourism industry is poised for significant growth. The combination of increasing airline connectivity, easing visa requirements, and economic recovery in key markets will contribute to the rise of international travelers to the U.S. As countries like India and China rebound and more travelers from Europe and Latin America make their way to the U.S., tourism will continue to play a vital role in strengthening the economy. However, shifting trends in Canadian travel and potential policy changes, like the travel ban, could present challenges that impact the flow of international visitors.