Boeing’s 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) projects that the global aviation industry will require 43,600 new aircraft by 2044, with emerging markets playing a central role in driving this demand. These markets, buoyed by the rapid expansion of their middle classes, robust economic growth, and competitive airline networks, are expected to contribute significantly to the growth of global air traffic. As these regions continue to urbanize and their populations gain more disposable income, air travel is becoming increasingly accessible, fueling the need for a larger, more diverse fleet. The rise of low-cost carriers and increased connectivity between cities across continents further amplifies this demand. By 2044, emerging markets are forecast to account for over 50% of the global commercial fleet, a substantial increase from their current share. As such, these regions will not only drive fleet growth but also influence the types of aircraft in demand, such as single-aisle planes for short-haul routes and widebody jets for long-haul international flights. This transformation is reshaping the future of global air traffic, with Boeing’s projections highlighting how emerging markets will be at the heart of the aviation industry’s expansion over the next two decades.

By 2044, Boeing projects that emerging markets will account for over 50% of the global commercial fleet, marking a significant increase from approximately 40% in 2024. This shift underscores the growing influence of these regions in the global aviation sector. In anticipation of the 2025 Paris Air Show, Boeing unveiled its 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), offering an in-depth forecast of future industry trends and developments. The CMO indicates that by the end of the decade, the supply of commercial aircraft will align with the rising demand, enabling airlines worldwide to refresh and expand their fleets.

“Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. “Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.”

The 2025 CMO highlights several key trends in the global aviation sector through 2044:

Passenger Traffic Growth

Passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.2%, more than doubling in size over the next two decades. This growth rate is notably higher than the anticipated global economic expansion, indicating that air travel will continue to be a critical mode of transportation for both leisure and business travelers. The increase in passenger numbers will be driven by factors such as population growth, rising disposable incomes, and greater connectivity between cities and countries.

Fleet Expansion

As the demand for air travel rises, the global commercial fleet will nearly double, reaching more than 49,600 airplanes by 2044. This surge in fleet numbers is largely driven by the need for airlines to add capacity in response to the growing demand for air travel. Boeing’s forecast shows that nearly 80% of the in-service fleet will be replaced with over 21,000 new aircraft deliveries. This replacement will improve fleet efficiency, enhance environmental sustainability, and provide airlines with the latest technologies in fuel efficiency, safety, and passenger comfort.

Shift Toward Single-Aisle Aircraft

One of the most significant trends in the forecast is the growing dominance of single-aisle aircraft in the global fleet. By 2044, single-aisle planes are projected to comprise 72% of the global fleet, up from 66% in 2024. This increase is attributed to the expansion of short-haul travel and the rise of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in emerging markets, where demand for affordable domestic and regional flights is growing rapidly. These aircraft are not only more economical for airlines to operate but also provide more flexibility in terms of route offerings.

Growth of the Widebody Fleet

In contrast, the global fleet of widebody aircraft, essential for long-haul travel, is set for substantial growth. By 2044, the number of widebody planes is expected to reach around 8,320, nearly doubling from about 4,400 in 2024. This surge is largely driven by airlines in emerging markets, which are swiftly expanding their long-haul networks to meet the rising demand for international travel. These carriers are poised to introduce more direct flights linking major business centers and sought-after tourist destinations worldwide.

Freighter Fleet Expansion

The global freighter fleet, which is vital for cargo and logistics services, is also set to experience substantial growth. This expansion is expected to be driven by the increasing diversification of supply chains and the growth of express cargo networks. The demand for air freight is projected to rise sharply, leading to the need for 2,900 new freighters, including both production aircraft and converted passenger planes. This expansion will help meet the growing demand for global shipping, which is especially critical for e-commerce and international trade.

Air Travel Trends and Network Growth

In terms of air travel trends, airlines have significantly expanded their networks over the past decade, serving about 30% more airport pairs. This has resulted in greater connectivity and more non-stop flight options for passengers. Additionally, air travel spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with consumers increasingly prioritizing air travel as a key part of their discretionary spending.

New Aircraft Deliveries (2025-2044)

As airlines continue to grow their fleets to meet rising demand, Boeing’s 2025 CMO forecast includes the following new aircraft deliveries over the next two decades:

• Regional Jets: 1,545
• Single-Aisle Aircraft: 33,285
• Widebody Aircraft: 7,815
• Freighters: 955

Total Deliveries: 43,600

This forecast highlights the scale of change the aviation industry will undergo in the coming decades. The rise of emerging markets and their expanding role in global air traffic is set to reshape the commercial aviation landscape. Boeing’s CMO, which has been published annually since 1961, remains one of the most trusted sources of insights into the future of the aviation industry, offering a thorough and a precise forecast of developments that will influence the future of air travel throughout the 21st century.

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