A recent analysis conducted by Mabrian, the travel intelligence platform, reveals a notable softening in travel intent to the United States in 2025 among several key outbound markets, including Europe, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and Australia. According to the data, demand for travel to the U.S. remains below the levels recorded in 2024, highlighting increasing caution and uncertainty among long-haul travelers when planning trips to the country. This trend poses potential challenges for the U.S. tourism sector as it competes to attract international visitors in a dynamic global travel environment.

Overview of Mabrian’s Travel Demand Data

Mabrian’s findings are derived from its proprietary Share of Searches Index, a robust metric based on the analysis of millions of global flight searches. This index measures the relative demand for travel to a destination by capturing spontaneous flight search behavior — a key indicator of travel intent. The study focuses on data collected from January through April 2025, tracking travel interest for flights to the U.S. with travel dates extending through September 2025.

The data indicates a moderate year-over-year decline in travel intent to the U.S. across all analyzed regions. Specifically, European Union countries (EU 27) experienced a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Australia and GCC countries both recorded more pronounced drops, with travel interest down by 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024. Although these changes might appear modest, they represent significant shifts given the scale of weekly flight searches.

Carlos Cendra, Partner and Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian, emphasized that “the variations, although moderate in percentage points, correspond to meaningful shifts in traveler sentiment.” He explained that the findings reveal a growing tendency among long-haul travelers to postpone firm travel plans, adopting shorter booking lead times that could impact the U.S.’s ability to secure early travel commitments.

European Travel Demand Faces Headwinds Amid Tariff Announcements

The study highlights that European demand, already affected by fluctuations following the U.S. presidential inauguration in January 2025, continues to reflect the impact of tariff announcements made by the U.S. government in April. The compounded Share of Searches Index from EU countries shows a consistent softening in interest, with the U.S. capturing just 5.5% of total flight searches initiated by the EU 27 during the period studied.

British demand showed an initial recovery in mid-March, temporarily surpassing last year’s levels, but this was short-lived. Following the April tariff announcement by the Trump Administration, interest from the UK declined again, with a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-over-year. Despite this, there are signs of a weak recovery potentially fueled by the recent bilateral agreement on tariffs between the UK and U.S., announced on May 8, 2025.

Among major continental European markets, Germany, Italy, and France averaged a Share of Searches Index of approximately 4.7% by the end of April. Both Germany and Italy experienced significant declines nearing 1 percentage point year-over-year, while France saw a moderate decrease of 0.5 percentage points, reversing earlier gains toward 2024 levels. These results suggest that tariff policies continue to weigh on travel intent and could influence European travelers’ destination choices for the remainder of 2025.

GCC Markets Show Significant Uncertainty and Decreased Travel Intent

Although the U.S. is not yet a primary destination for Gulf Arab travelers, the data reveals that it accounts for 1.7% of total flight searches from GCC countries between February and April 2025. This figure represents a notable decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year.

Within the GCC, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) market shows a particularly marked drop, with weekly declines averaging 0.75 percentage points. By the end of April, the U.S. held a 2.1% share of flight searches from the UAE. Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s travel interest to the U.S. dropped by 0.3 percentage points, settling at 0.9% of total flight searches. These declines underscore the broader uncertainty affecting long-haul travel demand in the region, influenced by economic and geopolitical factors.

Australia’s Travel Demand to the U.S.: Signs of Moderate Recovery

Australia’s outbound travel demand to the U.S. has remained consistently below 2024 levels since February 2025. However, the last week of April saw a notable uptick in travel intent, with the Share of Searches Index rising by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year to reach 3.5%. This marks the first positive shift in ten weeks and suggests a potential moderate recovery in interest. Industry experts caution that ongoing monitoring will be necessary to determine whether this trend continues in the coming months.

Implications for U.S. Tourism and Travel Industry

The evolving travel patterns revealed by Mabrian’s analysis reflect a growing trend of shorter booking lead times among long-haul travelers. This behavior creates risks for the U.S. travel sector as it attempts to maintain its competitive edge in the global market. Potential travelers’ hesitation to commit to plans far in advance may encourage them to explore alternative destinations with more flexible booking options or perceived stability.

Travel industry stakeholders and policymakers should consider these dynamics as they develop marketing strategies, promotional campaigns, and partnerships aimed at revitalizing inbound tourism. Continued collaboration between government agencies such as the U.S. Travel Association (ustravel.org) and international partners will be vital to addressing barriers and reinforcing the attractiveness of the U.S. as a top travel destination.

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