Donald Trump’s policies, including trade tariffs, stricter immigration laws, and a strengthening US dollar, have combined with rising global tensions to create a perfect storm for the US tourism sector. These factors, alongside deteriorating diplomatic relations with countries like Canada, Mexico, and key European nations, have made the US less attractive to international travelers. As a result, the US tourism industry is facing a sharp decline in foreign arrivals and spending, with experts predicting a long-term downturn that could reshape the sector.

The outlook for US tourism has taken a drastic turn for the worse. Industry experts now predict a significant drop in international visitors, driven by a confluence of factors including President Donald Trump’s policies, a stronger US dollar, and escalating global tensions.

According to a recent report by Tourism Economics, the number of international travelers to the United States is projected to drop by 5.1 percent in 2025, a stark contrast to the previously expected growth of 8.8 percent. The economic impact is even more severe, with spending by foreign visitors anticipated to fall by 10.9 percent. Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, warned that the situation has worsened since the report’s publication. “The effects of antipathy towards the US are deepening,” he said, suggesting that the final numbers could be even lower than currently predicted.

Why Is US Tourism Declining?

Several factors contribute to the projected downturn in tourism:

1. Trade Tariffs and Diplomatic Tensions: The Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China—along with threats of similar action against the European Union—has contributed to a negative perception of the US. Additionally, Trump’s controversial foreign policies, particularly on Ukraine and Gaza, have further alienated some potential travelers.
2. Stricter Immigration Policies: The US government’s aggressive stance on immigration has raised concerns among tourists and business travelers alike. Policies perceived as unwelcoming have led some organizations to reconsider hosting events in the US, while some companies have scaled back employee travel to the country.
3. Stronger US Dollar: The increasing strength of the US dollar has made travel more expensive for international visitors. Experts note that rising costs will likely reduce both the number of visitors and the average length of their stays.
4. Warnings from Foreign Governments: Several European governments, including the UK and Germany, have recently advised their citizens to be extra cautious when traveling to the US, citing the risk of strict border enforcement and potential detentions.
5. Declining Canadian Tourism: Canada, which accounted for 20.4 million US visitors in 2024, has already seen a decline in travel to the US. Statistics Canada reported a 23 percent drop in the number of Canadians returning from the US in February, marking the second consecutive monthly decline.

In New York, where 12.9 million foreign travelers visited in 2024, tourism officials are already seeing the effects. Julie Coker, president of NYC Tourism, said Canadian tourists are canceling bookings and showing less interest in Broadway shows and hotel stays. While declines from the UK and Europe are not yet apparent, she noted that officials are closely monitoring the situation.

Tourists React: ‘A Bit Scared’ But Still Visiting

Despite concerns, some international tourists continue to visit the US. Marianela Lopez and Ailen Hadjikovakis, travelers from Argentina, admitted they were apprehensive about border policies but still made the trip, opting to use their European passports instead of their Argentine ones to avoid potential issues.

French tourist Laurent Lagardere, visiting New York with his family, expressed a pragmatic view: “The Americans elected this president. It’s democracy. If they’re not happy, they’ll change it in four years.” He added that avoiding the US would not change the political situation.

What’s at Stake for the US Tourism Industry?

The tourism sector stands to lose approximately $64 billion in revenue in 2025 due to reduced travel, according to Tourism Economics. Industry professionals worry about the broader implications, particularly for major upcoming events such as the 2025 Ryder Cup, the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.

United Airlines and other carriers have already reported a “big drop” in Canadian travel to the US, along with declining domestic demand. Economic concerns, inflation fears, and recessionary warnings are also affecting travel confidence.

With foreign travel numbers falling and economic uncertainty looming, the US tourism industry is facing one of its most challenging periods in recent years.

The Trump Administration’s Impact on US Tourism

After Donald Trump took office, his administration fired on all cylinders, aiming to protect US interests, which led to a crackdown on immigration, tariffs against various countries, and even a bid to purchase Greenland. Now, it seems that the policies of the Trump administration may be contributing to a downturn in US tourism, as these policies appear to have scared away potential visitors.

The combination of factors resulting from Trump’s administration is increasingly seen as a key deterrent for international tourism. According to a report by Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, international traveler arrivals in the US are expected to decline by 5.1 percent in 2025 compared to last year, which marks a sharp reversal from earlier predictions of 8.8 percent growth.

The company also predicts a significant drop in tourism spending, projecting a 10.9 percent decline.

Trump’s Foreign Policy and Its Effect on Tourism

This gloomy outlook on tourism comes amidst Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions, which may have adversely affected potential visitors, as well as concerns over rising prices and a stronger US dollar.

Since early February, the US Travel Association has warned that the imposition of tariffs would significantly deter Canadians, the most frequent travelers to the US. In 2024, 20.4 million Canadians traveled to the US as tourists.

Channels of Impact on US Tourism

Tourism Economics identified three “channels of impact” that could harm the US tourism industry:

1. Travel Sentiment: Tense diplomatic relations and economic uncertainty may lead to less interest in traveling from countries that contribute significantly to US tourism, such as Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.
2. Economic Pressures: A slowdown in US economic growth, combined with economic downturns in Canada and Mexico due to the 25 percent tariffs, could dampen travel demand.
3. Exchange Rate Shifts: A stronger US dollar, resulting from tariff-induced economic shifts, would make traveling to the US more expensive for international visitors, further decreasing demand.

European and Asian Travelers Turn Away

In a survey, 35 percent of residents from 16 European and Asian countries stated that they were less likely to visit the US under the Trump administration. Tourists from Western Europe, who comprised 37 percent of visitors in 2024, are now the most likely group to opt for other destinations, followed by Canadians and Mexicans.

Donald Trump’s policies, rising global tensions, and a stronger US dollar have combined to deter international travelers, leading to a significant decline in US tourism. These factors are expected to reshape the tourism sector with lasting negative impacts.

A Long-Term Decline in Tourism Revenue

As per estimates from Tourism Economics, the US tourism sector stands to lose close to $64 billion in revenue in 2025 due to the declining level of travel. The combination of rising tariffs, a strong dollar, and ongoing diplomatic tensions suggests that the decline in US tourism could extend beyond 2025, reshaping the country’s tourism industry for years to come.

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