For years, Thailand has been the premier travel destination for Chinese tourists during the Lunar New Year holidays. However, recent trends indicate a shift, with Japan now overtaking Thailand as the most preferred destination. This change marks a significant evolution in travel patterns, influenced by factors such as affordability, visa policies, and evolving traveler preferences.

According to a report published by media, Japan was the leading international destination for Chinese tourists during the eight-day Lunar New Year holiday through February 4. Bookings surged compared to previous years, doubling from the last season’s figures. This shift in preference aligns with broader trends observed throughout 2024 when Japan outpaced Thailand in overall international arrivals. Data from the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) confirms that Japan recorded 36.87 million international arrivals in 2024, surpassing Thailand’s 35.55 million. The growing number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan has played a crucial role in this increase.

Data from online travel giant Trip.com Group shows that outbound travel from China rose by 30% year-on-year during the transition to the Year of the Snake. Japan emerged as the most popular choice among Chinese tourists, a sentiment echoed by Dongcheng Travel, which ranked Japan ahead of Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand.

Airfares, Visa Policies, and Airline Expansions Fuel Travel Surge

Lower airfares have been a key catalyst behind this growth. According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the number of international passenger flights departing mainland China rose significantly during the holiday period. An average of 1,888 international flights took off each day, reflecting a 24.6% increase compared to the previous year.

China Eastern Airlines led this expansion by increasing its flights to Japan by 54%, resulting in a 71.2% surge in passenger volume year-on-year. Meanwhile, Spring Airlines expanded its international routes by an impressive 76%, further facilitating outbound travel.

Hotel bookings overseas, particularly in Japan, also saw an unprecedented rise. Reservations surged by over 300% on New Year’s Eve compared to the previous year, with major growth in secondary destinations. Dongcheng Travel reports indicate that flight bookings to emerging hotspots like Sapporo and Chiba in Japan, Johor in Malaysia, Da Nang in Vietnam, and Cebu in the Philippines rose more than fivefold, while hotel reservations in these locations more than doubled within the first four days of the holiday period.

Visa Relaxations and Future Outlook for Japan’s Tourism Growth

Eased visa restrictions have played a pivotal role in boosting Chinese tourist arrivals in Japan. Tourism research and consulting firm JTB forecasts that the number of Chinese visitors to Japan will climb by 33% in 2025, reaching approximately 9.3 million. Several factors contribute to Japan’s attractiveness, including its geographical proximity to China and the continued depreciation of the yen, making travel more affordable.

Japan has ambitious goals for its tourism sector, aiming to attract 60 million international visitors by 2030, up from the 36.8 million recorded in 2024. However, capturing a higher share of spending from Chinese tourists remains a challenge despite the rising numbers.

Economic Slowdown and External Factors Impacting Outbound Travel

Despite the rise in outbound travel, China’s international tourism recovery remains sluggish compared to pre-pandemic levels. Economic constraints, including GDP growth below 5% and weakened business sentiment, have limited the pace of recovery. Nevertheless, Japan has managed to capitalize on the returning demand, strategically positioning itself as a preferred destination.

Tourism patterns are also influenced by unpredictable factors, including social media reactions to global events. In Thailand’s case, a major travel concern emerged following reports of Chinese actor Wang Xing disappearing in Myanmar while on a filming assignment. The incident fueled widespread safety concerns, as Shwe Kokko—where he vanished—is notorious for its illicit casino operations, online scams, and human trafficking rings. Chinese social media was abuzz with discussions about travel safety in Thailand, contributing to hesitation among potential visitors.

Conversely, Japan faced a media storm when Taiwanese actress Barbie Hsu passed away while traveling in Japan during the Lunar New Year. The incident triggered discussions on Weibo, with the term “Japanese flu” trending across Chinese social media platforms. However, industry analysts believe this has not significantly affected travel demand to Japan. According to Simo Xu from Dongcheng Research Institute, the flu outbreak remains non-contagious and follows predictable seasonal patterns, reducing concerns among travelers. No significant drop in flight bookings to Japan has been observed since February.

Japan’s Continued Dominance in Chinese Outbound Tourism

Japan has consistently ranked as a top destination for Chinese tourists, and current trends indicate that its appeal remains strong. The combination of eased visa policies, competitive airfares, increased airline connectivity, and favorable currency exchange rates has further solidified Japan’s position in the Chinese travel market. While challenges such as economic headwinds and social media-driven travel concerns remain, Japan’s tourism industry continues to thrive, with expectations of further growth into 2025 and beyond.

As Japan works towards its ambitious 2030 tourism targets, attracting high-spending Chinese tourists will be a key priority. Whether it can maintain its lead over Thailand and other regional competitors will depend on how well it adapts to evolving travel trends and market dynamics.